Best Supporting Actress
I’ll start with the category that I feel my predictions are most likely to be wrong in, partially because there just haven’t been that many supporting actress performances that really stood out for me, the opposite of the Best Actress category, which has plenty of big performances/potentially big performances, but we’ll get to all that a little later on. For now though Octavia Spencer from The Help and Vanessa Redgrave from Coriolanus both seem definite nominees, and Janet McTeer looks pretty likely to get nominated as well for her work in Albert Nobbs. The other two spots look pretty up for grabs however. I would guess that they will go to Bérénice Bejo from The Artist and Carey Mulligan from Shame, but Shailene Woodley will run them very, very close for her performance in The Descendants, and it’s Oscar campaign alone could well carry her to a nomination. Sandra Bullock is also worthy of consideration. Not much is known yet as to whether or not Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will be the Oscar heavyweight that many think it will be, but if it lives up to the hype, then Bullock could well get a nomination, having previously won Best Actress for The Blind Side.
1. Octavia Spencer
2. Vanessa Redgrave
3. Janet McTeer
4. Bérénice Bejo
5. Carey Mulligan
Best Actor
Like the Best Actress category, this year has been littered with great performances that all would have been considered front runners, had the competition not been so fierce. The two performances that have gotten everyone talking this year however, come from George Clooney in The Descendants, and Brad Pitt in Moneyball. Seeing as I haven’t seen either yet, I couldn’t give my opinion, but the buzz seems to be that Clooney is the front runner, although by a fairly narrow margin. If the votes between the two end up being fairly split, the award could end up going to the third favourite, which by the looks of things at the moment seems to be Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar. DiCaprio is a very talented actor who is long overdue for a Best Actor award, and probably deserves the win, though Pitt and Clooney currently have more momentum. Saying that however, if there’s one man who is more overdue for the award than DiCaprio, it has to be Gary Oldman, who looks like he could in for at least a nomination for his role in the first espionage Oscar candidate in god knows how long, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. That said, I can’t see this being Oldman’s year, though as I say, a nomination wouldn’t surprise me. Another outside bet is Ryan Gosling, who gave a stirring performance and added huge presence in The Ides of March, although his performance in Drive seems to be the one considered most likely to earn the attentions of the academy. Regardless, he could well be looking at a nomination for his efforts, though again, he’s unlikely to take home the prize.
1. George Clooney
2. Brad Pitt
3. Leonardo DiCaprio
4. Ryan Gosling
5. Gary Oldman
Best Actress
Meryl Streep is the early favourite to take home the Oscar for her performance as Margaret Thatcher in one of this year many biopics, The Iron Lady. She does however face some competition from Michelle Williams’s performance as Marilyn Monroe in another biopic, My Week With Marilyn. Of the two, Streep is the most likely contender, it’s the kind of film that the academy loves, and given how long overdue she is to add to her Oscar tally, I’d say she’s definitely the favourite. That said however, and consider this my “stick-your-neck-out” prediction for this year, but Rooney Mara has all the tools she needs to really be a contender for her role in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. She’s being directed by David Fincher, she’ll be playing off Daniel Craig, who looks like a good foil for her, and it’s the type of role that, if she pulls it off, will really draw the plaudits for her. There has been a consensus though that Dragon tattoo might be a little too edgy for the Academy’s tastes, and if that’s the case, then it could be a dry year for what’s promising to be an excellent film.
Best Picture
The granddaddy of ‘em all, and at the moment it seems to be a three horse race between The Artist, The Descendants, and War Horse, the latter probably considered the outsider at the moment. The race is far from over however, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close could yet upset the applecart, it has gotten a lot of hype, it has all the right ingredients to be a real Oscar heavyweight, and could well walk away with the prize. And then there’s the darkest of dark horses, the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Dragon Tattoo really has all the tools it could possibly want to be a great film. With David Fincher at the helm, there is only one reason that this film mightn’t succeed at the Oscars, and, as usual, it’s because the Academy don’t judge films objectively, and from the looks of it, Dragon Tattoo could well be too dark and edgy for the senior tastes of the Academy, especially considering Fincher’s pledge to stay true to the darkness of the original book. From the far, far opposite edge of the spectrum comes Martin Scoresese’s swing at a more family friendly film, Hugo. A huge departure from the man who gave us The Departed and Goodfellas, he knocked Hugo out of the park, it’s reception has been overwhelmingly positive from critics and audiences alike, and it could well be looking at a nomination, though a win would be a very, very long shot indeed. Another probable nomination, but unlikely winner is espionage thriller, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. There is a lot to like about the film, but spy films, just like sci-fi, horror and fantasy films, just don’t win at the Oscars. End of. None of the years many biopics, J. Edgar, My Week with Marilyn, The Iron Lady etc. have really picked up the traction needed to be considered major players in the Best Picture catagory. One could dabble with the idea of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 getting a nomination, in the same vein as Lord of the Rings, a reward for a series that hasn’t done well at the Oscars, but have always grossed well and have all been critically well received. And considering Hallows 2 is the highest grossing Harry Potter film, and the best reviewed, it has a chance to get a nominated, but it’s a slim chance. The Ides of March’s supreme acting and witty script was more than good enough to merit a nomination, but the film doesn’t seem to have picked up the momentum needed to really mount a serious Oscar campaign. It’s all moot however, as it looks like we are set to have yet another Best Picture winner that doesn’t deserve it, for probably the last four occasions, at least. My prediction: War Horse may be everyone else’s favourite, but, I’m just not feeling it, so I’m going to predict (very tentatively, mind you) The Artist. The Academy has been dishing out disappointment like it’s going out of style, and the cynic in me can’t help but feel that it’s going to more of the same this year for the Best Picture category.
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4. War Horse
5. Hugo
6. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer.
The Technical categories
I confess that my technical knowledge of film is somewhat limited, so I’m not really going to pretend I know what I’m talking about when it comes to the likes of best sound editing, best cinematography etc. but The Ides of March’s camerawork probably stood out most for me this year, take that for what it’s worth. As for best visual effects, at the moment it seems to be a two horse race between Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2, and Hugo, which, if the hype is to be believed, has the best use of 3D in a film yet. Now, I’m still unconvinced about 3D, thus far, the vast majority of the time it just comes across as the studio trying to cover up the cracks in the story, characters and writing by throwing fancy visuals at us in the hope that we don’t notice. I have always said that cool visuals should be like a child having desert after dinner. You can have them in your film, you can have all the funky visuals you want, go to town, BUT, only after you get everything else right, once you have a workable plot, an interesting set of characters, played by talented actors, dancing to the tune of intelligent, witty writing, befitting whatever genre of film you choose to make, only after you get all that right, then, THEN, you can have all the CG and 3D and LG and AC and FBJD that money can buy. Anyway, where was I?
Best Screenplay
Dragon Tattoo looks like it could be a contender for best adapted screenplay. Also don’t be surprised if Moneyball’s screenplay get’s a big slice of recognition, wherever Aaron Sorkin is involved, you know great writing can’t be far behind. This is also probably The Ides of March’s best shot at winning on the night, it had an excellent script, deftly balancing excitement and wit with realism and subtlety, which was effortlessly executed by it’s talented cast.
Best Director
The best director involved this year in terms of overall talent, without doubt, is David Fincher, and the Academy may well want to atone for not rewarding Fincher’s spellbinding magnum opus The Social Network at last years awards, which sadly lost out to the bafflingly well received The King’s Speech. That said however, Fight Club, Se7en, and Zodiac didn’t go over too well with the Academy either, and Dragon Tattoo will definitely be in the same direction as those, particularly with Fincher pledging to stay true to the tone of the book. That said however, I could see Fincher perhaps getting a nomination. It might seem like an outside bet at the moment, but I could definitely see Martin Scorsese doing well with Hugo, I think he has a better chance in the Directing category than the Best Picture category, and Hugo does look the sort of film that had a lot of directing work go into it. Not only that, but Scorsese’s reputation is without question, and the Academy have often been criticised for not giving his films that awards to go with their acclaim. It wasn’t until The Departed in 2006 that Scorsese finally got a Best Directors award, and that was after the Scorsese holy trinity of Taxi Driver, Raging Bull and Goodfellas. I’d love to be able to say that this is the year where they don’t just give Best Director to whoever directed Best Picture, but the fact is, the directors of The Artist, the Descendants and War Horse will probably round off the nominations.
1. Michael Hazanavicious
2. Martin Scoresese
3. Steven Spielberg
4. Alexander payne
5. David Fincher
Whatever the case, the 84th Academy Awards are shaping up to be a memorable event, a lot could still happen between now and the end of February, and I will be doing an updated lists at the end of January, and after the Golden Globes. Until then… happy fishing.
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